Distinguished history professor Allan Lichtman, who has consistently and accurately forecasted the results of U.S. presidential elections over the past four decades, has shared his projection for the forthcoming November election: Kamala Harris.
Nostradamus’ Polling Forcasts The Outcome Of The 2024 US Presidential Election
Lichtman, frequently referred to as the “Nostradamus” of U.S. elections, has consistently utilized his distinctive model, bypassing conventional polls and pundit analysis. His model, which he has employed since 1981, notably predicted the electoral victories of Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020.
Lichtman’s model assesses various factors, including the incumbent party’s economic and foreign policy performance, the challenger’s charisma, and the presence of significant scandals, using 13 key indicators. If five or fewer of these binary indicators are negative, the incumbent party, in this case the Democrats, is projected to prevail in the upcoming election.
In the context of the 2024 race, Lichtman projects a favorable outcome for Harris. He emphasizes the Democratic Party’s strong position, characterized by the absence of formidable third-party challengers, economic stability, and the positive impact of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. Furthermore, the lack of significant social unrest contributes to the advantageous circumstances for the Democratic side.