Current economic hardship, record-high inflation, the effects of climate change, and ongoing violence in the northeastern states served as the driving forces behind the projection.By 2025, Nigeria’s food insecurity will have gotten worse and could put as many as 33 million people in danger of starvation.
The country’s national population is currently around 223.8 million.33.1 million Nigerians are expected to experience high levels of food insecurity during the upcoming lean season (June–August 2025), according to a report by Cadre Harmonisé, which was spearheaded by the Federal Government and backed by partners like the United Nations World Food Programme.According to analysis, there were 33.1 million people, which is seven million more than there were during the same time last year.
Current economic hardship, record-high inflation, the effects of climate change, and ongoing violence in the northeastern states were the main causes of the projection’s increase.Even during the height of the harvest season, the report estimates that 25.1 million people will likely face food insecurity between October and December 2024. The northeastern states are home to 3.8 million of them, and by 2025, that number is expected to increase to 5 million.
It is also anticipated that the number of people experiencing food insecurity at Emergency levels (Phase 4) will rise nationally. Although no populations have been designated as “Catastrophe (Phase 5),” those in “Emergency (Phase 4)” are expected to increase by 80%, from 1 million during the lean season of 2024 to 1.8 million in 2025.
A vendor carries dried fish in a container at the Lagos island market in Lagos on March 8, 2024, ahead of the holy fasting month of Ramadan. (Photo by Benson Ibeabuchi / AFP)
Around 800,000 pregnant and lactating women and 5.4 million children in the most affected states—Sokoto, Katsina, and Zamfara in the northwest, and Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe in the northeast—are at risk of acute malnutrition or wasting. 1.8 million of these children may suffer from severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and need immediate nutritional assistance.
Due to economic hardship, record-high inflation, the effects of climate change, and ongoing violence in the country’s northeastern states, there has been an alarming 7 million increase in population compared to the same period last year.Even during the height of the harvest season, 25.1 million people are predicted to face severe food insecurity between October and December 2024. 3.8 million of them reside in the northeastern states, and that figure is expected to increase to 5 million, according to the statement.
The WFP projects that the number of people in the country who are experiencing emergency levels of food insecurity will rise by an alarming 80%, from 1 million during the peak of the 2024 lean season to 1.8 million during the same period in 2025.Six of the most affected states—Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe in the northeast, and Sokoto, Katsina, and Zamfara in the northwest—have about 800,000 pregnant and lactating women and 5.4 million children at risk of acute malnutrition or wasting. A startling 1.8 million of these children may suffer from severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and need urgent nutritional care.
In addition to record-high transportation costs, food prices have increased to an all-time high. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that the price of beans increased by 282% in October 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. In a similar vein, local rice prices increased by 153% from October of the previous year. These economic shocks have caused the naira, the local currency, to continuously depreciate against the US dollar. Other economic factors have also contributed to this, as have policy changes from the previous year, such as the removal of the fuel subsidy.Other significant causes of food insecurity in the nation include the consequences of climate change, especially floods, which have a direct effect on the growing prices of food as well as necessary non-food goods and services.
A vendor sells bread at the Lagos island market in Lagos on March 8, 2024, ahead of the holy fasting month of Ramadan. (Photo by Benson Ibeabuchi / AFP)
“Trend analyses for the northeastern states indicate consistently high or rising food insecurity levels since 2018. Since June 2020, there has been an annual increase of at least 4 million people in need of immediate assistance during the lean season, according to the statement.
The nation’s hunger crisis has gotten worse due to a number of factors, most notably economic hardship and record-high inflation, which as of June 2024 had reached 40.9% for food and 34.2% for all items.The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that while local rice prices increased by 153% in October 2024, the price of beans increased by 282%.
The ongoing devaluation of the Naira relative to the US dollar, outside economic forces, and the removal of the fuel subsidy last year are some of the causes of these economic shocks.Other significant factors contributing to present and future food insecurity include the effects of climate change, especially flooding, which drives up the price of food as well as necessary non-food goods and services.
The FAO reported that during October 1–15, 2024, floods flooded 4.5 million hectares, including 1.6 million hectares of farmland, and impacted over 9.2 million people.According to analysis, the annual production losses for rice, sorghum, and maize in flooded areas could amount to 1.1 million tonnes, which would be sufficient to feed 13 million people for a year. The resulting financial losses would be close to USD 1 billion.Access to and availability of food are hampered by the ongoing violence in the Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe (BAY) states in the northeast. The ongoing economic difficulties are further exacerbated by armed banditry, kidnappings, and farmer-herder conflicts in the northwest and north-central states, such as Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto, Kaduna, Benue, Plateau, and Niger.
Trends in the northeast have shown persistently high or rising food insecurity levels since 2018, with at least 4 million additional people requiring urgent assistance each lean season since June 2020. The northwest and parts of the north-central region now exhibit critical levels of severe food insecurity and malnutrition, marking them as hunger hotspots that urgently demand action from decision-makers.Representing Dr. Nuhu Kilishi Mohammed, the director of nutrition and food security, the permanent secretary of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Dr. Temitope Fashedemi emphasised the importance of the Cadre Harmonisé in planning food and nutrition security interventions nationwide.
A vendor counts her money as a girls looks on at the Lokoja International Market in Lokoja on October 21, 2024. (Photo by OLYMPIA DE MAISMONT / AFP)
FAO’s representative ad interim in Nigeria and to ECOWAS, Dominique Koffy Kouacou, reiterated FAO’s commitment to supporting Nigeria, stating, “Working with our partners, FAO is dedicated to implementing durable solutions that tackle the root causes of food insecurity and malnutrition. By enhancing agri-food systems, we aim to meet immediate needs while promoting sustainable progress.”
Highlighting the ongoing issue, WFP’s country representative, David Stevenson said, “The hunger crisis in Nigeria, driven by the conflict in the northeast, requires urgent attention. Restoring peace is essential to achieving the northeast’s potential as the country’s food basket.”UNICEF’s country representative, Ms. Cristian Munduate stressed the urgent need for action, stating, “Children are at the heart of the crisis, facing irreversible physical and cognitive consequences, and potentially even death. It is our duty to ensure that every child’s right to adequate food and nutrition is upheld.”
The United Nations called on the Nigerian Government, donors, and stakeholders to commit resources to prevent a potential food and nutrition disaster, emphasising the need for immediate, multi-sectoral support.
A man looks on as he sits on his cart near Lokoja International Market in Lokoja on October 21, 2024. (Photo by OLYMPIA DE MAISMONT / AFP)
The report follows a $50m World Bank support for Nigeria’s food nutrition challenges.Country Director of the World Bank, Ndiame Diop revealed this during a meeting with Vice President, Kashim Shettima at the Presidential Villa Abuja on Tuesday.According to Diop, the fund was earmarked under the Accelerating Nutrition Results in Nigeria (ANRiN) project 2.0 programme which is a crisis response window.