As we approach the 2024 gubernatorial elections in Ondo State, scheduled for November 16, it is essential to analyze the potential outcomes in each Senatorial district. This analysis will provide valuable insights into the dynamics and strategies that may shape the electoral landscape.
The Ondo State 2024 Governorship Election: A Crucial Decision
The Ondo North Senatorial District comprises four local government areas in Akoko: Akoko North East, Akoko North West, Akoko South East, and Akoko South West. It also includes two local government areas in the Owo axis: Owo LGA and Ose LGA.
The Senatorial district has been won by the APC in the past three National elections. Professor Robert Ajayi Boroffice won in 2015 and 2019 after his initial victory in 2011 on the platform of the Labour Party led by then-Governor Olusegun Mimiko.
The current Senator representing the Senatorial district is Jide Ipinisagba of the APC.
With the support of the Minister of Interior, Olubunmi Tunji Ojo (a former member of the House of Representatives representing North East/Akoko North West), Honourable Adefarati of Akoko South East/Akoko South West, and several others, Governor Aiyedatiwa is poised for a strong performance in the Akoko region.
However, Governor Aiyedatiwa may face challenges in the Owo/Ose Federal constituency, particularly in Owo LGA, if the animosity between him and the late Akeredolu family prior to his ascension as Governor persists.
This potential obstacle is balanced by the fact that the Governor’s running mate hails from Owo.Historically, the PDP has not held a strong position in this Senatorial district. The recent defections of Stephen Olemija (Akoko North East/Akoko North West) and Lekan Bada (a candidate in the recent by-elections) from the PDP to the APC further diminish the chances of Alfred Agboola Ajayi in this region.
Bada, a former council chairman of Akoko North East LGA, was defeated in the bye-elections to replace Olubunmi Tunji Ojo by the APC candidate, Ife Ehindero. With the exception of Owo/Ose Federal Constituency, where Governor Aiyedatiwa may still emerge victorious, the APC is poised to dominate all other areas in this Senatorial District and is expected to win in Ondo North Senatorial District.
The Ondo Central Senatorial District encompasses Akure North, Akure South, Ondo West, Ondo East, Idanre, and Ifedore Local Government Areas. It is the most populous senatorial district in Ondo State, with Akure South and Ondo West being the two most populous LGAs. Several prominent APC members, including Senator Adegbonmire, Honourable Peter Makinde, Honourable Adesida Cornelius, and former Governor Mimiko, have aligned with the APC, increasing Governor Aiyedatiwa’s chances of success in this senatorial district. Honourable Alfred Ajayi can rely on the support of Eyitayo Jegede SAN in Akure.
Governor Aiyedatiwa’s strategic engagement with traders regarding the barricade issue in Akure, coupled with his positive rapport with civil servants, positions him favourably to secure a substantial number of votes. Additionally, a victory for Governor Aiyedatiwa would facilitate the return of political power to the Ondo Central Senatorial District in 2028, whereas a win for Agboola Ajayi and his subsequent completion of two terms would delay this transition until 2032. Consequently, Governor Aiyedatiwa is well-positioned to secure the Ondo Central Senatorial District.
The Ondo South Senatorial District is the electoral district of both candidates.Traditionally, this district has been a stronghold of the PDP. It comprises Ese Odo, Ilaje, Ile Oluji/Okeigbo, Irele, Odigbo, and Okitipupa Local Government Areas.Until 2023, the last senatorial elections in this district from 2011, 2015, and 2019 were won by the Labour Party in 2011, the PDP in 2015, and the PDP again in 2019. This senatorial district has never been a stronghold of the ACN/APC until recently.
It is uncertain whether Governor Aiyedatiwa would have been able to successfully compete against Agboola Ajayi without the advantage of incumbency. By defeating Alexander Olusola Oke SAN in their Local Government during the APC primaries, Governor Aiyedatiwa has solidified his position of power.
Both Agboola Ajayi and Governor Aiyedatiwa are anticipated to contribute significantly in this district. The upcoming elections between the two individuals in the riverine areas are expected to be intense. A victory for Governor Aiyedatiwa would imply that power can only remain in Ondo South for a duration of four years. It is anticipated that Governor Aiyedatiwa will emerge as the victor.